Argentina presidential election: first round winner?: Will Sergio Massa win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

No87%
Sergio Massa13%

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ResolvesOct 24, 2027in 12 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 5Oct 10Oct 15Oct 19Oct 24Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Sergio Massa wins the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. For elections with runoffs or multiple rounds: if the market does not specify a round, the winner is the ultimate victor of the election. If the market designates a specific round, the winner is the candidate elected in that round or, if the election is not decided in that round, the candidate receiving a plurality of votes in that round, in each case regardless of whether that round is followed by any further round or runoff. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Polymarket resolves to the named candidate with most votes; Kalshi resolves Yes if Massa wins the first round, defined as receiving a plurality in that round. Both use official Argentine electoral sources. Polymarket's deadline is 8 hours later (June 30, 2028 ET) but both effectively measure the same event outcome.
  • Will Sergio Massa win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

    A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Argentine government, specifically the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).

  • Kalshithis market

    Argentina presidential election: first round winner?: Will Sergio Massa win the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election?

    If Sergio Massa wins the first round of the 2027 Argentine presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. For elections with runoffs or multiple rounds: if the market does not specify a round, the winner is the ultimate victor of the election. If the market designates a specific round, the winner is the candidate elected in that round or, if the election is not decided in that round, the candidate receiving a plurality of votes in that round, in each case regardless of whether that round is followed by any further round or runoff. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

    read Oct 24, 01:41 PM UTC

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As of Oct 24, 03:37 PM UTC