Prime Minister of Spain after the next election: Pedro Sánchez

No84%
Yes16%

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ResolvesAug 22, 2028in 2 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 5Oct 10Oct 15Oct 20Oct 25

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Pedro Sánchez becomes Prime Minister of Spain as a result of government formation following the next Spanish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Aug 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. Outcome verified from Congress of Deputies and King of Spain .

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. The criteria are substantively the same; Limitless additionally names the Congress of Deputies and King of Spain as verification sources, while Kalshi does not specify a source. The outcome labels differ (“Pedro Sánchez” versus “Yes”), but represent the same affirmative result.
  • Prime Minister of Spain after the next election?: Will Pedro Sánchez become Prime Minister of Spain following the next Spanish general election?

    If Pedro Sánchez becomes Prime Minister of Spain as a result of government formation following the next Spanish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Aug 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes.

    read Oct 24, 04:22 AM UTC

  • Limitlessthis market

    Prime Minister of Spain after the next election: Pedro Sánchez

    If Pedro Sánchez becomes Prime Minister of Spain as a result of government formation following the next Spanish general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/legislature, and exercises the full powers of the office (not serving in a caretaker/acting capacity from the previous government). If no government forms by Aug 22, 2028, the Contract resolves to "No one" if that is an option and No for all other strikes. If new elections are called before government formation, the Contract resolves to "No one" immediately and No for all other strikes. Outcome verified from Congress of Deputies and King of Spain .

    0 holders · read Oct 24, 10:13 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Prime Minister of Spain after the next election: Alberto Núñez FeijóoLimitless80% YesOpen
Prime Minister of Spain after the next election: Santiago AbascalLimitless95% NoOpen

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Best bid 15% · best ask 24%

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As of Oct 25, 03:16 AM UTC