Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — MiniMax

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ResolvesNov 15, 2026in 21 days

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will settle to Yes if MiniMax is the Chinese company with the highest ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena overall leaderboard on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI. The ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena overall leaderboard, with Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control). If multiple models from different Chinese companies are tied for the highest rank, the model with the highest Score will be considered the #1-ranked model (including any underlying, unrounded values reflected in the data below the leaderboard). If a tie remains, the company whose name comes first in alphabetical order will be considered the #1 ranked company. Chinese companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. PolymarketUs resolves on 2026-11-15; PredictFun specifies resolution occurs at market check time on October 31, 2026. PredictFun explicitly excludes AutoEval-marked models; PolymarketUs does not mention this. Both use arena.ai with Style Control Off as authoritative source.
  • Polymarket USthis market

    Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — MiniMax

    This market will settle to Yes if MiniMax is the Chinese company with the highest ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena overall leaderboard on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI. The ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena overall leaderboard, with Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control). If multiple models from different Chinese companies are tied for the highest rank, the model with the highest Score will be considered the #1-ranked model (including any underlying, unrounded values reflected in the data below the leaderboard). If a tie remains, the company whose name comes first in alphabetical order will be considered the #1 ranked company. Chinese companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.

    read Oct 24, 12:18 PM UTC

  • Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?

    This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

    read Oct 21, 11:39 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — DeepSeekPolymarketUs—Open
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — TencentPolymarketUs—Open
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — AlibabaPolymarketUs88% NoOpen
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — XiaomiPolymarketUs56% YesOpen
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — MoonshotPolymarketUs70% NoOpen
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — Z.aiPolymarketUs—Open
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — ByteDancePolymarketUs—Open
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — MeituanPolymarketUs—Open
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — BaiduPolymarketUs—Open
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — StepFunPolymarketUs—Open

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As of Oct 24, 09:03 PM UTC