Polymarket USOpen

Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — Moonshot

No70%
Yes31%

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Spread1%
ResolvesNov 15, 2026in 21 days

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will settle to Yes if Moonshot is the Chinese company with the highest ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena overall leaderboard on October 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI. The ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena overall leaderboard, with Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control). If multiple models from different Chinese companies are tied for the highest rank, the model with the highest Score will be considered the #1-ranked model (including any underlying, unrounded values reflected in the data below the leaderboard). If a tie remains, the company whose name comes first in alphabetical order will be considered the #1 ranked company. Chinese companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — DeepSeekPolymarketUs—Open
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — TencentPolymarketUs—Open
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — AlibabaPolymarketUs88% NoOpen
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — XiaomiPolymarketUs56% YesOpen
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — Z.aiPolymarketUs—Open
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — ByteDancePolymarketUs—Open
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — MeituanPolymarketUs—Open
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — BaiduPolymarketUs—Open
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — MiniMaxPolymarketUs—Open
Best Chinese AI Company end of October? — StepFunPolymarketUs—Open

Venue activity

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As of Oct 24, 04:24 PM UTC