Claude 6 Released? — By March 31, 2027
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will settle to Yes if Anthropic releases a Claude model numbered 6.0 or greater by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Anthropic. Task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claude Code, Claude Gov, or Claude Security, will not qualify on their own. A "release" refers to the specified model being made accessible and usable to the general public without requiring special status, including via an open beta or open rolling waitlist. A release available to some or all paid members of the public qualifies. A closed beta, or access limited to a closed group of testers, researchers, or enterprise customers, does not qualify.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude 6 Released? — By June 30, 2027 | PolymarketUs | 71% Yes | Open |
| Claude 6 Released? — By December 31, 2026 | PolymarketUs | 76% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Oct 24, 02:16 PM UTC