Polymarket USOpen

Claude 6 Released? — By December 31, 2026

No76%

Yes25%

Price checked at Oct 24, 02:04 PM UTC

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24h volume$796

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread1%

ResolvesJul 15, 2027in 9 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will settle to Yes if Anthropic releases a Claude model numbered 6.0 or greater by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from Anthropic. Task-specific products or restricted lines such as Claude Code, Claude Gov, or Claude Security, will not qualify on their own. A "release" refers to the specified model being made accessible and usable to the general public without requiring special status, including via an open beta or open rolling waitlist. A release available to some or all paid members of the public qualifies. A closed beta, or access limited to a closed group of testers, researchers, or enterprise customers, does not qualify.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Claude 6 Released? — By March 31, 2027	PolymarketUs	56% No	$3.5K	—	—	Open
Claude 6 Released? — By June 30, 2027	PolymarketUs	71% Yes	$3K	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 29 minutes ago

Holders—

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

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Open interest—

Comments0

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As of Oct 24, 02:17 PM UTC