Fed Decision in October: 50+ bps Increase
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will settle to Yes if the Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 50 basis points or more at the October 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Outcome sourced from the Federal Reserve. If the change in the specified rate does not precisely match the displayed options, changes smaller than the smallest option of the same direction (increase/decrease) will be rounded to that smallest option, and changes greater than the smallest option of the same direction will be rounded to the nearest displayed option, with values exactly halfway between options being rounded away from zero.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in October: No Change | PolymarketUs | 84% Yes | Open |
| Fed Decision in October: 25 bps Increase | PolymarketUs | 84% No | Open |
| Fed Decision in October: 25 bps Decrease | PolymarketUs | 99% No | Open |
| Fed Decision in October: 50+ bps Decrease | PolymarketUs | — | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 2 hours agoDiscussion on Predxy
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As of Oct 3, 11:02 PM UTC