Fed Decision in October: 25 bps Increase
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Resolution rules
This market will settle to Yes if the Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points at the October 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Outcome sourced from the Federal Reserve. If the change in the specified rate does not precisely match the displayed options, changes smaller than the smallest option of the same direction (increase/decrease) will be rounded to that smallest option, and changes greater than the smallest option of the same direction will be rounded to the nearest displayed option, with values exactly halfway between options being rounded away from zero.
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2 venues carry it- PolymarketUsthis market
Fed Decision in October: 25 bps Increase
This market will settle to Yes if the Federal Reserve increases the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points at the October 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Outcome sourced from the Federal Reserve. If the change in the specified rate does not precisely match the displayed options, changes smaller than the smallest option of the same direction (increase/decrease) will be rounded to that smallest option, and changes greater than the smallest option of the same direction will be rounded to the nearest displayed option, with values exactly halfway between options being rounded away from zero.
read Oct 3, 10:38 AM UTC
- OpinionOpen →
Fed Decision in October — 25 bps increase
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
read Oct 3, 11:04 AM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed Decision in October: No Change | PolymarketUs | 82% Yes | Open |
| Fed Decision in October: 25 bps Decrease | PolymarketUs | 99% No | Open |
| Fed Decision in October: 50+ bps Increase | PolymarketUs | 99% No | Open |
| Fed Decision in October: 50+ bps Decrease | PolymarketUs | — | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 31 minutes agoDiscussion on Predxy
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As of Oct 3, 11:08 AM UTC