Polymarket USOpen

Grok 5 Released? — By December 31, 2026

No62%

Yes39%

Price checked at Oct 24, 09:15 PM UTC

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24h volume$17.2K

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 15, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will settle to Yes if xAI releases Grok 5 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from xAI. A "release" refers to the specified model being made accessible and usable to the general public without requiring special status, including via an open beta or open rolling waitlist. A release available to some or all paid members of the public qualifies. A closed beta, or access limited to a closed group of testers, researchers, or enterprise customers, does not qualify. Grok 5 refers to any model explicitly named Grok 5 or greater, or to any model that is identified by xAI as a new model generation successor to the Grok 4 generation. Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7 or additional decimalized Grok 4 variants will not qualify.

Other legs of this event

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Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Grok 5 Released? — By September 30, 2026	PolymarketUs	100% No	—	—	—	Open

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As of Oct 24, 09:26 PM UTC