Polymarket USOpen

Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026? — DeepSeek

No96%

Yes5%

Price checked at Oct 24, 02:44 PM UTC

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24h volume$496

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 15, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will settle to Yes if DeepSeek has the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard at any point between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI. The #1 ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard, with Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control). If multiple models from different companies are tied for rank #1, both models will be considered a #1 ranked model.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026? — OpenAI	PolymarketUs	87% No	$19.2K	—	—	Open
Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026? — Meta	PolymarketUs	83% No	$3.5K	—	—	Open
Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026? — xAI	PolymarketUs	90% No	$2.8K	—	—	Open
Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026? — Alibaba	PolymarketUs	92% No	$592	—	—	Open
Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026? — Z.ai	PolymarketUs	89% No	$334	—	—	Open
Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026? — Baidu	PolymarketUs	95% No	$279	—	—	Open
Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026? — Amazon	PolymarketUs	97% No	$249	—	—	Open
Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026? — ByteDance	PolymarketUs	97% No	$173	—	—	Open
Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026? — Moonshot	PolymarketUs	97% No	$98	—	—	Open
Which Companies will have #1 AI Model in 2026? — Google	PolymarketUs	100% Yes	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

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As of Oct 24, 02:45 PM UTC