Polymarket USOpen

Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — Moonshot

No99%
Yes2%

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24h volume$49
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread1%
ResolvesJan 15, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 22, 11:54 AMOct 23, 05:19 AMOct 23, 10:45 PMOct 24, 04:11 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will settle to Yes if Moonshot has the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI. The #1 ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard, with Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control). If multiple models from different companies are tied for rank #1, the model with the highest Score will be considered the #1-ranked model (including any underlying, unrounded values reflected in the data below the leaderboard). If a tie remains, the company whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order will be considered the winner.

Other legs of this event

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Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — AnthropicPolymarketUs55% NoOpen
Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — GooglePolymarketUs63% NoOpen
Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — OpenAIPolymarketUs93% NoOpen
Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — xAIPolymarketUs97% NoOpen
Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — MetaPolymarketUs97% NoOpen
Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — AmazonPolymarketUs98% NoOpen
Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — ByteDancePolymarketUs—Open
Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — DeepSeekPolymarketUs—Open
Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — Z.aiPolymarketUs—Open
Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — AlibabaPolymarketUs—Open
Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — BaiduPolymarketUs—Open

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As of Oct 24, 04:45 PM UTC