Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — Anthropic
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will settle to Yes if Anthropic has the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI. The #1 ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard, with Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control). If multiple models from different companies are tied for rank #1, the model with the highest Score will be considered the #1-ranked model (including any underlying, unrounded values reflected in the data below the leaderboard). If a tie remains, the company whose name, as listed in this market, comes first in alphabetical order will be considered the winner.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — Google | PolymarketUs | 63% No | Open |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — OpenAI | PolymarketUs | 93% No | Open |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — xAI | PolymarketUs | 97% No | Open |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — Meta | PolymarketUs | 97% No | Open |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — Amazon | PolymarketUs | 98% No | Open |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — ByteDance | PolymarketUs | — | Open |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — DeepSeek | PolymarketUs | — | Open |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — Moonshot | PolymarketUs | 99% No | Open |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — Z.ai | PolymarketUs | — | Open |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — Alibaba | PolymarketUs | — | Open |
| Which Company Has #1 AI Model end of 2026? — Baidu | PolymarketUs | — | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 10 hours agoDiscussion on Predxy
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As of Oct 24, 04:34 PM UTC