Which party will win the U.S. House in 2026? — Democratic Party

Yes91%
No9%

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ResolvesFeb 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 7Oct 13Oct 19Oct 24

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This contract resolves based on whether the Democratic Party controls the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2026 United States midterm elections held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Control is defined as holding the most seats in the House based on final, official results. A majority consists of at least 218 seats. If two parties hold the same number of seats, control is determined by which party enters government by electing the Speaker of the House. Independents who formally caucus with a party are treated as members of that party. If control cannot be determined by seat totals, control is determined by House leadership, as reflected by the party affiliation of the Speaker of the House. The contract resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party controls the House and to No otherwise. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/4N0uAFXTLBUpbp1Z7iPjJi/f185eb7d03ccd2e33a41426f215b8b53/Election_Outcomes_-_Terms_and_Conditions.pdf)

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. Kalshi resolves by February 1, 2027, potentially using early media consensus or the Speaker’s party, while Gemini specifies final official seat totals and tie/leadership rules and lists February 1, 2027 as its resolution date. These are differing resolution procedures for the same underlying event.
  • Which party will win the U.S. House?: Will Democrats win the House in 2026? Democratic Party

    If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.

    read Oct 22, 07:37 AM UTC

  • Geminithis market

    Which party will win the U.S. House in 2026? — Democratic Party

    This contract resolves based on whether the Democratic Party controls the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2026 United States midterm elections held on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Control is defined as holding the most seats in the House based on final, official results. A majority consists of at least 218 seats. If two parties hold the same number of seats, control is determined by which party enters government by electing the Speaker of the House. Independents who formally caucus with a party are treated as members of that party. If control cannot be determined by seat totals, control is determined by House leadership, as reflected by the party affiliation of the Speaker of the House. The contract resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party controls the House and to No otherwise. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/4N0uAFXTLBUpbp1Z7iPjJi/f185eb7d03ccd2e33a41426f215b8b53/Election_Outcomes_-_Terms_and_Conditions.pdf)

    read Oct 22, 07:37 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Which party will win the U.S. House in 2026? — Republican PartyGemini90% NoOpen

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As of Oct 24, 06:16 PM UTC