GeminiOpenPart of a cross-venue question

US GDP Growth in 2026? — 1.6 to 2.0

No72%

Yes29%

Price checked at Oct 24, 06:25 PM UTC

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Spread1%

ResolvesFeb 28, 2027in 4 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If GDP growth in 2026 is between 1.6 to 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F88cf4719632f4bf989b4c8e284d69090?alt=media&token=9f4eae20-a249-48f8-904e-dce7733a7893&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question

Comparable, not identical. Both cite BEA, but Kalshi specifies the first-published annual percent change from the advance estimate and excludes later revisions; Gemini does not publish that level of detail. Their listed resolution times also differ by 1 hour, which is immaterial to the underlying question.

this market
US GDP Growth in 2026? — 1.6 to 2.0
If GDP growth in 2026 is between 1.6 to 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2F88cf4719632f4bf989b4c8e284d69090?alt=media&token=9f4eae20-a249-48f8-904e-dce7733a7893&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).
read Oct 22, 03:48 PM UTC
Open
GDP growth in 2026? 1.6% to 2.0%
If the United States real GDP growth in 2026 is between 1.6% to 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2026. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2026 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2026 GDP in early 2027. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.
read Oct 21, 03:08 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
US GDP Growth in 2026? — 2.6 to 3.0	Gemini	84% No	—	—	—	Open
US GDP Growth in 2026? — 1.1 to 1.5	Gemini	96% No	—	—	—	Open
US GDP Growth in 2026? — 2.1 to 2.5	Gemini	62% No	—	—	—	Open
US GDP Growth in 2026? — 4.1 to 4.5	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open
US GDP Growth in 2026? — 0.1 to 0.5	Gemini	94% No	—	—	—	Open
US GDP Growth in 2026? — 3.1 to 3.5	Gemini	96% No	—	—	—	Open
US GDP Growth in 2026? — 4.6 to 5.0	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open
US GDP Growth in 2026? — 3.6 to 4.0	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open
US GDP Growth in 2026? — 0.6 to 1.0	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 days ago

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As of Oct 24, 06:32 PM UTC