Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027? — Eli Lilly

No91%
Yes10%

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Spread5%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 2Oct 8Oct 14Oct 19Oct 25

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Eli Lilly before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Sources from the United States federal government, the official announcements or filings by the entity, NBC, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, CNBC, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, ABC, and CBS. Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes. Non-equity instruments like bonds or loans don't qualify. Stakes by sovereign wealth funds or state-owned enterprises attributed to the body count. The value can be expressed as percentage ownership, monetary value, or share count, with percentage being the default unless specified. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa6ac2410e7c046b2a8c531cd085613a8?alt=media&token=76600c01-717d-46f4-a86f-d7c7cd42405e&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. The venues use different settlement times on January 1, 2027, and Gemini specifies a list of acceptable sources while Kalshi does not specify one. These are resolution-mechanics differences that do not change the underlying question.
  • Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?: Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Eli Lilly?

    If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Eli Lilly before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes. Non-equity instruments like bonds or loans don't qualify. Stakes by sovereign wealth funds or state-owned enterprises attributed to the body count. The value can be expressed as percentage ownership, monetary value, or share count, with percentage being the default unless specified.

    read Oct 23, 09:09 PM UTC

  • Geminithis market

    Which companies will the US take a stake in before 2027? — Eli Lilly

    If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Eli Lilly before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Sources from the United States federal government, the official announcements or filings by the entity, NBC, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, CNBC, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, ABC, and CBS. Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes. Non-equity instruments like bonds or loans don't qualify. Stakes by sovereign wealth funds or state-owned enterprises attributed to the body count. The value can be expressed as percentage ownership, monetary value, or share count, with percentage being the default unless specified. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fa6ac2410e7c046b2a8c531cd085613a8?alt=media&token=76600c01-717d-46f4-a86f-d7c7cd42405e&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba).

    read Oct 24, 02:22 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

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As of Oct 25, 06:58 PM UTC