KalshiOpen

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.01% on Oct 1, 2026? 5.02% or above

No96%

5.02% or above4%

Price checked at Oct 1, 10:06 AM UTC

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24h volume$401

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread6%

ResolvesOct 1, 2026in 9 hours

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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No recorded data before Oct 1 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.01% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 1, 2026, or one week following Oct 1, 2026.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.97% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.98% or above	Kalshi	98% No	$268	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.89% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.9% or above	Kalshi	73% No	$200	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.87% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.88% or above	Kalshi	62% 4.88% or above	$151.6	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.79% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.8% or above	Kalshi	98% 4.8% or above	$120.4	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.91% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.92% or above	Kalshi	76% No	$100	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.85% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.86% or above	Kalshi	88% 4.86% or above	$100	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 1, 2026? 5.04% or above	Kalshi	94% No	$99	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.77% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.78% or above	Kalshi	98% 4.78% or above	$83	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.75% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.76% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.76% or above	$15	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.81% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.82% or above	Kalshi	97% 4.82% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.95% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.96% or above	Kalshi	86% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.93% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.94% or above	Kalshi	88% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.83% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.84% or above	Kalshi	95% 4.84% or above	$0	—	—	Open

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As of Oct 1, 10:29 AM UTC