KalshiOpen

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.95% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.96% or above

No94%

4.96% or above7%

Price checked at Oct 1, 06:46 AM UTC

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24h volume$0

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread11%

ResolvesOct 1, 2026in 11 hours

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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No recorded data before Sep 30 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.95% on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 1, 2026, or one week following Oct 1, 2026.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.01% on Oct 1, 2026? 5.02% or above	Kalshi	99% No	$401	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.97% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.98% or above	Kalshi	98% No	$268	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.89% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.9% or above	Kalshi	73% No	$200	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.87% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.88% or above	Kalshi	62% 4.88% or above	$151.6	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.79% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.8% or above	Kalshi	98% 4.8% or above	$120.4	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.91% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.92% or above	Kalshi	63% No	$100	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.85% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.86% or above	Kalshi	88% 4.86% or above	$100	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 1, 2026? 5.04% or above	Kalshi	94% No	$99	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.77% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.78% or above	Kalshi	98% 4.78% or above	$83	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.75% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.76% or above	Kalshi	99% 4.76% or above	$15	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.81% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.82% or above	Kalshi	86% 4.82% or above	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.93% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.94% or above	Kalshi	90% No	$0	—	—	Open
Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.83% on Oct 1, 2026? 4.84% or above	Kalshi	90% 4.84% or above	$0	—	—	Open

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As of Oct 1, 08:20 AM UTC