Which Senate races will be within 5 points?: Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in North Carolina be decided by 5 percentage points or less?
Price checked at
The latest price check failed. Showing the last known prices.
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
No recorded data before Sep 29 in this window.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in North Carolina falls within 0 to 5 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place finisher's vote share, measured in percentage points. Zero indicates a tie. Certified official results are used, subject to the contract's Fully-Conducted Elections and accelerated-resolution provisions. For ranked-choice voting, the vote shares in the last round actually conducted are used.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Sep 29, 09:25 PM UTC