Which Senate races will be within 5 points?: Will the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas be decided by 5 percentage points or less?

If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Texas falls within 0 to 5 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place finisher's vote share, measured in percentage points. Zero indicates a tie. Certified official results are used, subject to the contract's Fully-Conducted Elections and accelerated-resolution provisions. For ranked-choice voting, the vote shares in the last round actually conducted are used.