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Will the number of Trump rallies be above 65 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?

No90%
Above 6511%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread9%
ResolvesFeb 1, 2027in 4 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 28, 05:10 PMSep 29, 02:51 AMSep 29, 12:32 PMSep 29, 10:13 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the number of Trump rallies is above 65 from January 1 to November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A Trump rally is a public, in-person political event organized around a rally-style address by Donald J. Trump, typically preceded by guest speakers, held at a large venue, and open to attendees via free registration. Examples in 2026 include the rallies on 1/27 (Clive, IA), 2/19 (Rome, GA), 2/27 (Corpus Christi, TX), 3/11 (Hebron, KY), 4/17 (Phoenix, AZ), 5/1 (The Villages, FL), and 5/22 (Suffern, NY). As of 5/27/26, the count is 7.

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As of Sep 29, 10:16 PM UTC