California wins by over 14.5 points

No88%
California wins by over 14.5 points12%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread3%
ResolvesOct 3, 2026in 2 days

Probability history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 27Sep 28Sep 29Sep 30Oct 1Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If California wins by more than 14.5 points in the California vs UNLV college football game originally scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is not started within 48 hours, the market will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Polymarket remains open for postponement until completion and uses a 50-50 resolution for a cancellation; Kalshi uses a 48-hour postponement window and then resolves to a fair price if the game does not start. They also cite different or unspecified resolution sources and have different listed settlement times.
  • PolymarketOpen →

    California vs UNLV: spread: California (-14.5)

    In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 3:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "California" if California win the game by 15 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "UNLV". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

  • Kalshithis market

    California wins by over 14.5 points

    If California wins by more than 14.5 points in the California vs UNLV college football game originally scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the game is not started within 48 hours, the market will resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

    read Sep 30, 06:44 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
UNLV wins by over 2.5 pointsKalshi50% NoOpen
UNLV wins by over 3.5 pointsKalshi58% NoOpen
California wins by over 4.5 pointsKalshi66% NoOpen
UNLV wins by over 13.5 pointsKalshi81% NoOpen
California wins by over 2.5 pointsKalshi59% NoOpen
UNLV wins by over 10.5 pointsKalshi76% NoOpen
UNLV wins by over 1.5 pointsKalshi54% UNLV wins by over 1.5 pointsOpen
UNLV wins by over 16.5 pointsKalshi85% NoOpen
UNLV wins by over 4.5 pointsKalshi58% NoOpen
California wins by over 7.5 pointsKalshi75% NoOpen
UNLV wins by over 14.5 pointsKalshi83% NoOpen
California wins by over 16.5 pointsKalshi91% NoOpen
California wins by over 1.5 pointsKalshi57% NoOpen
UNLV wins by over 7.5 pointsKalshi70% NoOpen
UNLV wins by over 5.5 pointsKalshi60% NoOpen
UNLV wins by over 6.5 pointsKalshi64% NoOpen
UNLV wins by over 11.5 pointsKalshi76% NoOpen
California wins by over 6.5 pointsKalshi69% NoOpen
UNLV wins by over 9.5 pointsKalshi71% NoOpen
California wins by over 5.5 pointsKalshi68% NoOpen
California wins by over 9.5 pointsKalshi80% NoOpen
California wins by over 13.5 pointsKalshi79% NoOpen
California wins by over 11.5 pointsKalshi84% NoOpen
California wins by over 3.5 pointsKalshi65% NoOpen
California wins by over 10.5 pointsKalshi78% NoOpen

Venue activity

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As of Oct 1, 12:11 PM UTC