PolymarketResolved

Game Spread: Carlos Alcaraz (-5.5) vs Alex de Minaur (+5.5)

Alex de Minaur50%
Carlos Alcaraz50%

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This market has settled. The prices shown are final.
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Spread1%
ResolvesOct 4, 2026in 3 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 27, 05:50 AMSep 27, 11:33 AMSep 27, 05:16 PMSep 27, 11:00 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

No recorded data before Sep 27 in this window.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Carlos Alcaraz" if Carlos Alcaraz wins 5.5 or more total games than Alex de Minaur in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Alex de Minaur". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Carlos Alcaraz could no longer have finished 5.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Alex de Minaur". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex de Minaur: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket50% Under 2.5Open
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Set 2 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de MinaurPolymarket50% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
Set Handicap: Carlos Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Alex de Minaur (+1.5)Polymarket50% Carlos AlcarazOpen
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Set Handicap: Alex de Minaur (-1.5) vs Carlos Alcaraz (+1.5)Polymarket50% Alex de MinaurOpen
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket50% OverOpen
Set 1 Winner: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de MinaurPolymarket50% Alex de MinaurOpen
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Alcaraz vs. Minaur: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket50% UnderOpen
Laver Cup: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de MinaurPolymarket50% Alex de MinaurOpen
Laver Cup: Completed Match: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de MinaurPolymarket100% NoOpen

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As of Oct 2, 01:02 AM UTC