ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 58.0+

No96%
Yes4%

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ResolvesOct 1, 2026tomorrow

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 18Sep 21Sep 24Sep 27Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 ( https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/ ), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report ( https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/ ). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Limitless and Polymarket specify resolution upon the scheduled October 1, 2026 report release and include fallback rules for delayed or unavailable data; Kalshi lists a later October 1 resolution time and only specifies the ISM-published value. These are resolution-procedure differences, not differences in the question.
  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 58.0 in September?

    This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

    12 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 29, 11:15 PM UTC

  • KalshiOpen →

    ISM Manufacturing PMI in September: ISM Manufacturing PMI in Sep 2026? At least 58

    If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for Sep 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 58, then the market resolves to Yes.

    read Sep 29, 10:24 PM UTC

  • Limitlessthis market

    ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 58.0+

    This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 ( https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/ ), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report ( https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/ ). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

    0 holders · read Sep 29, 08:34 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 50.0 to 50.9Limitless97% NoOpen
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: <50.0Limitless97% NoOpen
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 52.0 to 52.9Limitless50% NoOpen
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 51.0 to 51.9Limitless92% NoOpen
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 54.0 to 54.9Limitless70% NoOpen
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 53.0 to 53.9Limitless50% YesOpen
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 57.0 to 57.9Limitless94% NoOpen
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 56.0 to 56.9Limitless94% NoOpen
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 55.0 to 55.9Limitless67% YesOpen

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Best bid 0% · best ask 8%

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As of Sep 29, 11:35 PM UTC