ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 50.0 to 50.9

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Yes3%

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ResolvesOct 1, 2026tomorrow

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 18Sep 21Sep 24Sep 27Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 ( https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/ ), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report ( https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/ ). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria are materially identical, including the scheduled release timing and fallback treatment if the data is delayed.
  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 50.0 and 50.9 in September?

    This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

    15 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 27, 09:27 PM UTC

  • Limitlessthis market

    ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 50.0 to 50.9

    This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for September 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business. The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for September 2026 ( https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/ ), currently scheduled to be released on October 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets. Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report ( https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/ ). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

    0 holders · read Sep 29, 08:55 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: <50.0Limitless97% NoOpen
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 52.0 to 52.9Limitless50% NoOpen
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 51.0 to 51.9Limitless92% NoOpen
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 54.0 to 54.9Limitless70% NoOpen
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 53.0 to 53.9Limitless50% NoOpen
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 57.0 to 57.9Limitless96% NoOpen
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 56.0 to 56.9Limitless93% NoOpen
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 55.0 to 55.9Limitless63% NoOpen
ISM Manufacturing PMI - September 2026: 58.0+Limitless96% NoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 10:42 PM UTC