Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in September?

Yes100%
No0%

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This market has settled. The prices shown are final.
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ResolvesOct 1, 2026tomorrow

Probability history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 17Sep 19Sep 20Sep 22Sep 23Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of September 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Sourcehttps://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Myriad specifies resolution at September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, while Polymarket lists October 1, 2026, 03:59:59.999 UTC (the same instant). Myriad more explicitly describes a fallback to the official daily COMEX low and includes cancellation/new-outcome provisions; these do not materially change the question.
  • MyriadOpen →

    Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in September?

    ### **Market Details:** - **Market Period:** From the publication date through August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. - **Market Close:** August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. - **Resolution Time:** August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. ### **Market Targets:** - This event contains multiple independent Gold (XAUUSD) price outcomes. - Each outcome resolves independently as either “**Yes**” or “**No**”. ### **Resolution Criteria:** - Outcomes resolve to **“Yes”** if any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final Low price equal to or below the respective outcome at any point during an applicable trading session within the Market Period. - Outcomes resolve to **“No”** if not. ### **Resolution Details:** - Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session will be considered. The trading session typically runs from 6:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. - Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. - If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the Market Period, this market will resolve to “No.” - In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the Market Period, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. - If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official daily low price published for the relevant CME COMEX Gold Futures contract (GC) will be used instead. - **Newly Added Outcomes:** Any outcome added after the event is first published—including outcomes with the same price target as previously resolved outcomes—will only consider price action occurring after that outcome is published and before the Market Close. Earlier price action, including any price movement that resolved a previous outcome with the same value, will not be considered. ### **Cancellation Conditions:** - The Pyth price feed for Gold (XAUUSD) is suspended or becomes unreliable, with no fallback source available. - Any circumstance prevents reliable price tracking during the Market Period. If the market is cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of those shares at cancellation.

    read Sep 28, 12:55 PM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in September?

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of September 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No". In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in September?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in September?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in September?Polymarket—Open
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in September?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in September?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in September?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in September?Polymarket86% NoOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in September?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in September?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in September?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in September?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in September?Polymarket59% YesOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in September?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in September?Polymarket96% NoOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in September?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in September?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in September?Polymarket99% NoOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in September?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,700 in September?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in September?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in September?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in September?Polymarket100% NoOpen

Venue activity

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As of Sep 29, 08:28 PM UTC