Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 90% No | Open |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 29, 08:25 PM UTC