Moonshot announces a training pause by October 31?
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Probability history
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Resolution rules
On August 18, 2026, OpenAI announced it had paused some frontier reinforcement learning training to meet alignment, security, and monitoring standards, and on September 1, 2026, Anthropic disclosed that it had paused some training following unauthorized actions by its models. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company announces that it has paused or will pause training of one or more of its AI models over safety, alignment, or security concerns between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made through the listed company's official channels or by an authorized representative acting in an official capacity, and must state that the company has paused, is pausing, or will pause training, or must disclose a pause that the company had not previously announced. The company must itself attribute the pause, at least in part, to safety, alignment, or security concerns. A pause of any duration qualifies, including a pause limited to particular models, training methods, or training environments. Statements that describe slowing development, adding review steps, or considering a pause without stating that training has been or will be paused will not qualify. If a qualifying announcement is made within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the pause is actually carried out, is later modified or withdrawn, or training later resumes. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meta announces a training pause by October 31? | Polymarket | 95% No | Open |
| Microsoft announces a training pause by October 31? | Polymarket | 95% No | Open |
| Mistral announces a training pause by October 31? | Polymarket | 94% No | Open |
| SpaceXAI announces a training pause by October 31? | Polymarket | 95% No | Open |
| DeepSeek announces a training pause by October 31? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Google announces a training pause by October 31? | Polymarket | 94% No | Open |
| OpenAI announces a training pause by October 31? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
| Alibaba announces a training pause by October 31? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Baidu announces a training pause by October 31? | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
| Meituan announces a training pause by October 31? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Z.ai announces a training pause by October 31? | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
| Amazon announces a training pause by October 31? | Polymarket | 97% No | Open |
| ByteDance announces a training pause by October 31? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Anthropic announces a training pause by October 31? | Polymarket | 51% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 30, 05:05 PM UTC