What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026 — >8,000

No90%
Yes10%

Price checked at

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24h volume$2.3K
7d volume$2.3K
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread—
ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The venues differ in stated resolution timestamps and Opinion does not separately populate a resolution-source field, but its criteria name the same Yahoo Finance historical-price source. No material difference in the event, threshold, horizon, or settlement method is apparent.
  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $8,000 on the final trading day of December 2026?

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

    0 holders · read Sep 28, 07:53 PM UTC

  • Opinionthis market

    What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026 — >8,000

    This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

    read Sep 30, 09:26 AM UTC

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As of Sep 30, 09:34 AM UTC