KalshiOpen

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? Before 2027

No98%

Before 20272%

Price checked at Sep 29, 08:18 PM UTC

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24h volume$0

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 8, 2040in 13 years

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? Before 2040	Kalshi	63% Before 2040	$0	—	—	Open
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? Before 2030	Kalshi	62% No	$0	—	—	Open
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? Before 2035	Kalshi	53% Before 2035	$0	—	—	Open

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As of Sep 29, 09:09 PM UTC