KalshiOpen

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? Before 2040

Before 204063%

No37%

Price checked at Sep 29, 08:18 PM UTC

Trade

Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →

Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.

24h volume$0

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread3%

ResolvesJan 8, 2040in 13 years

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? Before 2030	Kalshi	62% No	$0	—	—	Open
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? Before 2035	Kalshi	53% Before 2035	$0	—	—	Open
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? Before 2027	Kalshi	98% No	$0	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue this minute

Holders—

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

As of Sep 29, 08:22 PM UTC