When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?: Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Nov 2026?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Any action related to Tulsi Gabbard will not qualify. The President announcing that a member of the Cabinet will leave the Cabinet also qualifies. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?: Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Oct 2026? | Kalshi | 97% No | Open |
| When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?: Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Jan 2027? | Kalshi | 62% Before Jan 2027 | Open |
| When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?: Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Dec 2026? | Kalshi | 55% Before Dec 2026 | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Sep 29, 08:29 PM UTC