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When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave?: Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Jan 2027?

Before Jan 202762%
No38%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread5%
ResolvesJan 1, 2029in 2 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Aug 9Aug 22Sep 3Sep 16Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their office, or announces they will leave their office, from before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Any action related to Tulsi Gabbard will not qualify. The President announcing that a member of the Cabinet will leave the Cabinet also qualifies. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

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As of Sep 29, 10:59 PM UTC