KalshiOpen

Unemployment in October: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in October?

Above 4.0%81%

No19%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:05 PM UTC

Trade

Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →

Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.

24h volume$11

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread8%

ResolvesNov 6, 2026next month

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 4.0% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Unemployment in October: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in October?	Kalshi	70% No	$323	—	—	Open
Unemployment in October: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in October?	Kalshi	96% No	$311	—	—	Open
Unemployment in October: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in October?	Kalshi	93% Above 3.7%	$290	—	—	Open
Unemployment in October: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in October?	Kalshi	90% No	$203	—	—	Open
Unemployment in October: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in October?	Kalshi	97% Above 3.8%	$121	—	—	Open
Unemployment in October: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in October?	Kalshi	54% Above 4.1%	$91.7	—	—	Open
Unemployment in October: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in October?	Kalshi	86% Above 3.9%	$77.7	—	—	Open
Unemployment in October: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 5.0% in October?	Kalshi	95% No	$0	—	—	Open
Unemployment in October: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.8% in October?	Kalshi	98% No	$0	—	—	Open
Unemployment in October: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.7% in October?	Kalshi	90% No	$0	—	—	Open
Unemployment in October: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.6% in October?	Kalshi	90% No	$0	—	—	Open
Unemployment in October: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.9% in October?	Kalshi	52% Above 4.9%	$0	—	—	Open
Unemployment in October: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in October?	Kalshi	86% No	$0	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue this minute

Holders—

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

As of Sep 29, 09:35 PM UTC