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Who will advance in the Brazilian presidential election?: Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva97%
No3%

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24h volume$488
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread1%
ResolvesOct 3, 2028in 2 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 12Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified. If a candidate is announced to not qualify, the market will immediately resolve to No.

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As of Sep 29, 10:13 PM UTC