Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Sep 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?
Price has not been independently checked yet.
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $85000 starting Aug 24, 2026 and before Sep 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The resolution value is calculated by taking all BRTI values for each minute from market issuance until the specified time on the target date, removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60% of values. If the BRTI crosses the threshold at any point during the measurement period (triggering early expiration), the market immediately resolves. If no data is available at the expiration time, the market resolves to No. The market can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| When will Bitcoin cross $85k again?: Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Oct 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? | Kalshi | 74% By Oct 2, 2026 | Open |
| When will Bitcoin cross $85k again?: Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Dec 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? | Kalshi | 80% By Dec 11, 2026 | Open |
| When will Bitcoin cross $85k again?: Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Oct 16, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? | Kalshi | 82% By Oct 16, 2026 | Open |
| When will Bitcoin cross $85k again?: Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Feb 5, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET? | Kalshi | 88% By Feb 5, 2027 | Open |
| When will Bitcoin cross $85k again?: Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by May 14, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET? | Kalshi | 54% No | Open |
| Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Sep 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? | Kalshi | 85% No | Open |
| When will Bitcoin cross $85k again?: Will Bitcoin be above $85,000 by Nov 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET? | Kalshi | 83% By Nov 13, 2026 | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 19 days agoDiscussion on Predxy
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As of Oct 1, 10:23 AM UTC