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Major news story in Sep 2026?: Will the number of full-width New York Times front page headlines be at least 5 in Sep 2026?

No83%
At least 517%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread1%
ResolvesOct 1, 2026tomorrow

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 23Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the number of New York Times front page banner headlines is at least 5 in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. "Banner headline" refers to a standalone centered headline surrounded only by whitespace. This market resolves based on the front page displayed in the NYT Store's 'Front Page Reprint' section. Past examples: Jan 5, 2026; Jan 4, 2026; Nov 5, 2025; May 31, 2024; Jun 24, 2016

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As of Sep 30, 07:05 AM UTC