KalshiOpen

Headline PCE inflation in Aug 2026: Will headline PCE inflation for August 2026 be above 0.3%?

No60%
Above 0.3%40%

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24h volume$74.1
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread12%
ResolvesOct 7, 2026in 8 days

Probability history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 23Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the headline PCE inflation for August 2026 is above 0.3%, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, including food and energy, published in the Personal Income and Outlays release for August 2026. The first officially published August 2026 value will be used. Subsequent revisions will not affect the market outcome.

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As of Sep 29, 10:18 PM UTC