KalshiOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Bahia Governor winner?: Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?

Jerônimo Rodrigues57%

No43%

Price checked at Sep 30, 03:26 AM UTC

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24h volume$592.7

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread1%

ResolvesOct 4, 2026in 5 days

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Jerônimo Rodrigues wins the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Polymarket resolves by June 30, 2027 using credible reporting or Brazil’s TSE if needed, while Kalshi may resolve early after designated media sources declare a winner and lists October 4, 2026 as its settlement time. The venues also label the affirmative outcome differently ("Yes" versus "Jerônimo Rodrigues").

PolymarketOpen →
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
128 holders · 5 comments · read Sep 27, 07:51 PM UTC
Kalshithis market
Bahia Governor winner?: Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?
If Jerônimo Rodrigues wins the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 10:33 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Bahia Governor winner?: Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	56% No	$372.6	—	—	Open
Bahia Governor winner?: Will Ronaldo Mansur win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	99% No	$0	—	—	Open
Bahia Governor winner?: Will Aroldo Felix win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	99% No	$0	—	—	Open
Bahia Governor winner?: Will Ariel Capistrano win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	99% No	$0	—	—	Open
Bahia Governor winner?: Will Maria Bona win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	99% No	$0	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 5 hours ago

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As of Sep 30, 03:28 AM UTC