Will the Bank of Korea hike by 50 bps or more at the October 2026 meeting?

No99%
Yes1%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity$903.7
Spread1%
ResolvesOct 22, 2026in 22 days

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket and Limitless specify the official Bank of Korea release, upper-bound treatment, and rounding rules, while Kalshi specifies the official policy decision, primary rate, and excludes emergency changes; Kalshi also has explicit cancellation/delay rules. These are resolution-rule differences, not differences in the underlying question.
  • KalshiOpen →

    Bank of Korea rate decision in October: Will the Bank of Korea Hike more than 25bps at the October Monetary Policy Board meeting?

    If the Bank of Korea takes the action of Hike more than 25bps at October Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.

    read Sep 29, 07:49 PM UTC

  • LimitlessOpen →

    Bank of Korea decision in October: 50+ bps hike

    This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar ( https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022 ). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

    0 holders · read Sep 29, 05:40 PM UTC

  • Polymarketthis market

    Will the Bank of Korea hike by 50 bps or more at the October 2026 meeting?

    This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.

    25 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 27, 04:31 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket65% YesOpen
Will the Bank of Korea cut by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the Bank of Korea cut by 50 bps or more at the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket100% NoOpen
Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?Polymarket69% NoOpen

Venue activity

Holders25
Held value—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Open interest—
Comments0

Top holders

  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296618025710044230172563183200766017855164279717418971408841109570260646635231074
  • liq236052537543421157688960000073713147562766442941237024039519658761932207393521
  • 2B9S36052537543421157688960000073713147562766442941237024039519658761932207393521
  • 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44.36052537543421157688960000073713147562766442941237024039519658761932207393521
  • Deafening-Possible36052537543421157688960000073713147562766442941237024039519658761932207393521

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As of Sep 29, 09:15 PM UTC