PolymarketOpen

Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?

No99%

Yes1%

Price checked at Sep 29, 08:28 PM UTC

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24h volume$266.1

7d volume$286.1

30d volume$2K

Liquidity$862

Spread1%

ResolvesApr 1, 2027in 6 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +1.5°C and below +2.0°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.

Sourcehttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?	Polymarket	81% No	$3.4K	—	—	Open
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?	Polymarket	76% Yes	$2.6K	—	—	Open
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?	Polymarket	98% No	$285	—	—	Open
Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?	Polymarket	100% No	$101.1	—	—	Open

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As of Sep 29, 08:35 PM UTC