Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is at least +2.25°C and below +2.5°C. Otherwise, it resolves "No". The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Sourcehttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above? | Polymarket | 76% Yes | Open |
| Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
| Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0? | Polymarket | 99% No | Open |
| Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 7 days agoBest bid 80% · best ask 81%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b129662526724473459508700730317454449623492019754637050593555508792407796018051974
- Corny-Hyphenation96306173729168928753902049690316969219580448346381915468922109690067101781718
- LocalHunter2526724473459508700730317454449623492019754637050593555508792407796018051974
- Haradwaith96306173729168928753902049690316969219580448346381915468922109690067101781718
- 2B9S96306173729168928753902049690316969219580448346381915468922109690067101781718
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL19%$8.48 days ago
- SELL20%$18 days ago
- SELL20%$108 days ago
- SELL21%$31.48 days ago
- BUY79%$7.98 days ago
- BUY79%$74.98 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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As of Sep 29, 10:27 PM UTC