PolymarketOpen

Will Emmanuel Macron visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?

No79%

Yes22%

Price checked at Sep 30, 02:05 AM UTC

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24h volume$61.9

7d volume$1.9K

30d volume$2.9K

Liquidity$10.3K

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Mark Rutte visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	61% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	69% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will Mark Carney visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	89% No	—	—	—	Open
Will JD Vance visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	92% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will António Guterres visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	90% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	61% No	$32.9	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 8 days ago

Holders27

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments6

Best bid 26% · best ask 29%

Top holders

Cattail81172497319729677458533318551402839323431528616263587471385028433380312268842
ka7ak50738448856727442825756699622585947611390440889095790545655751062519336490341
POB-T50738448856727442825756699622585947611390440889095790545655751062519336490341
balabalababalabala81172497319729677458533318551402839323431528616263587471385028433380312268842
Mustafalafel81172497319729677458533318551402839323431528616263587471385028433380312268842

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL79%$15.89 days ago
SELL18%$1.89 days ago
SELL85%$179 days ago
SELL85%$179 days ago
BUY15%$39 days ago
BUY14%$16.89 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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6 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

Trading4Fridge · 9 days ago
what do you know genixx?
jor1casey2 · 15 days ago
lol
smaIIfish · 26 days ago
Witkoff and Kushner are such fucking pussies they wont go to Kyiv lol
Flickering-Slip · last month
The end.
Mission3 · 2 months ago
yeah need more clarity about opening date
Fluo · 2 months ago
Can we include the exact opening date of the market in the rules to avoid any problems? We know it's a new market, but some people on the list have already visited Ukraine this year.

As of Sep 30, 02:47 AM UTC