Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31, 2026?
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Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Abbas Araghchi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Abbas Araghchi and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by September 30, 2026? | Polymarket | 98% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 3 hours agoBest bid 87% · best ask 93%
Top holders
- nonkenny9030716506591188133448711999523391668809931327929585118043212377521795110613806
- Warren-Buffett99188208960823076978257920935907625871959401890969386328099637858235820288618
- Jep-G30716506591188133448711999523391668809931327929585118043212377521795110613806
- gods-eye99188208960823076978257920935907625871959401890969386328099637858235820288618
- Jasses99188208960823076978257920935907625871959401890969386328099637858235820288618
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- BUY89%$107 hours ago
- SELL87%$25.29 hours ago
- SELL89%$17.812 hours ago
- SELL86%$65.4yesterday
- BUY91%$69.2yesterday
- BUY90%$114yesterday
Discussion on Predxy
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As of Sep 30, 02:50 AM UTC