PolymarketOpen

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?

No100%

Yes0%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:19 PM UTC

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24h volume$101.9K

7d volume$125.6K

30d volume$186.3K

Liquidity$125.5K

Spread0%

ResolvesOct 1, 2026tomorrow

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	94% No	$2.3K	—	—	Open
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?	Polymarket	60% No	$45.1	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 4 days ago

Holders286

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

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Open interest—

Comments7

Best bid 0% · best ask 0%

Top holders

Themsnw102963946476301464155846348149714317918722387635971948099097519511899201326439
qmarktea2108308183073891946533642360856234559374146268200961511650206295005007824881339
wayneglensky102963946476301464155846348149714317918722387635971948099097519511899201326439
Hatatavnwmf102963946476301464155846348149714317918722387635971948099097519511899201326439
Overlooked-Conformation102963946476301464155846348149714317918722387635971948099097519511899201326439

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Discussion on Predxy

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7 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

.dgalvyn · 23 days ago
saw polyitem in wallet, instant mood boost
usurper55 · 3 months ago
The way i understand it , it will resolve to NO. correct. It requires insane mental gymnastics to justify YES under this ruleset
zthunderfury · 3 months ago
If he has a heart attack and dies, then would this resolve NO ?
paddaa · 3 months ago
thank you NPR for giving me new high volume trading opportunities
Glodisdal · 3 months ago
It's funny that the original Alito NRP article is identical to the one over Breyer from 2022. It really looks more like a precautionary journalistic placeholder than actual information. After all, rumors about Alito have been circulating for at least two years, most recently this past spring.
bernardbulletin · 3 months ago
NINA
Cadric · 7 months ago
Alito loves the spotlight too much, especially after Dobbs and his wife's flag drama.

As of Sep 29, 09:23 PM UTC