Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week. If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | Polymarket | 54% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 2 days agoBest bid 57% · best ask 58%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296683807364550095283785247725753755474033908874895393195962686868246100593473172
- Investnow89763889714159092645533540264041439687764921560664578503878401138227369261592
- arbandy89763889714159092645533540264041439687764921560664578503878401138227369261592
- ImJustKen89763889714159092645533540264041439687764921560664578503878401138227369261592
- New.Jeans83807364550095283785247725753755474033908874895393195962686868246100593473172
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL57%$6.62 days ago
- BUY58%$5.83 days ago
- BUY58%$8.94 days ago
- BUY58%$24 days ago
- BUY43%$15 days ago
- BUY58%$117.95 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
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9 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- peterpol3 · last month
spidyy
- wheelingmatt · last month
and they most likely to achieve a 1.5B when they start opening pre-sale tickets worldwide, let alone a 3B when it arrives to cinema
- Laalo · last month
RDJ as DOOM, TOBEY, THOR, LOKI, CHRIS EVANS, Greatest cast ever and people still think Spiderman will win. Crazy!
- peterpol3 · 2 months ago
Everyone is excited to see tony stark as Dr. Doom☠️
- YourAnimeGirl · 2 months ago
SPM 47m on Monday and tracking for 550m+ first 7 days. Weekday of Dune 3 also effect to Doomsday OVR? Like it is should 50-50?
- Euphy · 2 months ago
Weekdays are expected to be stronger for Doomsday due to the December legs. That's why this market still has Doomsday as the favorite to win.
- YourAnimeGirl · 2 months ago
Why SPM is 30% when Dune 3 will be a stronger opponent than Odyssey
- Euphy · 4 months ago
- Addresss · 5 months ago
dune with 11% is funny
As of Sep 30, 11:29 PM UTC