PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

No92%

Yes8%

Price checked at Sep 29, 08:22 PM UTC

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24h volume$30

7d volume$30

30d volume$3K

Liquidity$1.8K

Spread2%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. The criteria differ in no material way. Polymarket specifies a resolution timestamp of January 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC, while PredictFun does not specify one; both use the same leaderboard and fallback availability rules.

PredictFunOpen →
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Created At: 2026-04-02T22:40:39.495443986Z
read Sep 29, 05:28 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
47 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 28, 04:37 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	51% No	$806	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue yesterday

Holders47

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Top holders

wavesinthesky45618799395155942424234007557643669012750085368468978237357699778964383322890
Rr5597356317564879150993537472039086232751398548743665524636886229253791367066754
molodoyy97356317564879150993537472039086232751398548743665524636886229253791367066754
nelsonc1997356317564879150993537472039086232751398548743665524636886229253791367066754
mewmew197356317564879150993537472039086232751398548743665524636886229253791367066754

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL7%$07 days ago
SELL7%$07 days ago
SELL9%$3.69 days ago
BUY10%$1.29 days ago
BUY10%$1.29 days ago
SELL90%$1810 days ago

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As of Sep 29, 08:23 PM UTC