PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

No51%

Yes50%

Price checked at Sep 29, 08:22 PM UTC

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24h volume$806

7d volume$2.2K

30d volume$16.3K

Liquidity$699.5

Spread3%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Polymarket lists a settlement check time of January 1, 2027 at 04:59 UTC; PredictFun does not publish a separate settlement time. The source, availability, and fallback rules otherwise appear identical.

Polymarketthis market
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
72 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 22, 08:50 AM UTC
PredictFunOpen →
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No". Created At: 2026-04-02T22:40:39.495441531Z
read Sep 29, 05:26 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Polymarket	92% No	$30	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 8 days ago

Holders72

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 64% · best ask 69%

Top holders

Investnow68448621179046862042293371885664190458598817618518296796216984971510852805335
nelsonc1956280858321308425599533260939424532811927303957581839314339029877090682774493
Poivre56280858321308425599533260939424532811927303957581839314339029877090682774493
PMTraderAdam56280858321308425599533260939424532811927303957581839314339029877090682774493
HerrieDavis56280858321308425599533260939424532811927303957581839314339029877090682774493

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY52%$3.18 days ago
BUY52%$31.28 days ago
BUY30%$214.68 days ago
SELL29%$13.18 days ago
SELL30%$1.58 days ago
BUY56%$229.49 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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As of Sep 29, 09:12 PM UTC