PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?

No88%

Yes13%

Price checked at Oct 2, 08:06 AM UTC

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24h volume$324.5

7d volume$324.5

30d volume$541.4

Liquidity$12.1K

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2028next year

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Resolution criteria have not been compared by a person yet. Venues may settle this question on different sources or dates.

OpinionOpen →
Probable FDV above ... one day after launch — $50M
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, 1 day after launch, the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of the project's token (as specified in the market title) is greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is this CoinMarketCap 5-minute price chart with the chart set to the 24-hour (24h) range. If CoinMarketCap later modifies, backfills, or revises the historical data, this market will use the value of the data point as it was first reported by CoinMarketCap for that timestamp, ignoring any subsequent changes. If the project listed in the title does not launch a token (as defined above) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
read Oct 2, 07:59 AM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
53 holders · 9 comments · read Oct 1, 02:55 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Probable FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Polymarket	92% No	—	—	—	Open
Probable FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Probable FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Probable FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Polymarket	90% No	$732.5	—	—	Open
Probable FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Polymarket	87% No	$100.5	—	—	Open
Probable FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Polymarket	91% No	$35	—	—	Open
Probable FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Polymarket	88% No	$30	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue yesterday

Holders53

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments9

Top holders

notrading82580039849822476522020389147140949223823804044715383635486396645630358451634
randomlypunting19254528357813643639239527036720061436353422030317029132383604501577716350236
0x8931aa50226eea3e626c961ccffcf176dcf3a90c19254528357813643639239527036720061436353422030317029132383604501577716350236
MajoriT19254528357813643639239527036720061436353422030317029132383604501577716350236
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b0419254528357813643639239527036720061436353422030317029132383604501577716350236

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL88%$8.89 days ago
SELL88%$111 days ago
BUY89%$111 days ago
SELL12%$7.312 days ago
BUY12%$8.814 days ago
SELL11%$1.122 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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9 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

DoubleDip · 5 months ago
Thanks for buying me out guys. Have fun holding for the next 19 months
ithinkthisisgod · 7 months ago
dont buy this bcz even though it is no,it will take 2 year to resolve .its not worth it
cortis11 · 7 months ago
A market that is already meaningless~
tradexplorer · 7 months ago
someone please propose no. points are being converted to predictfun points. tge is cancelled
Zhangmuzhiholy · 7 months ago
u r right. but u need wait to 2028
baoyu23 · 7 months ago
An acquired project is impossible to tge
Dlarmer · 7 months ago
This event should be settled in advance, and it is impossible to launch a token again after being acquired~
Dreamwalker · 7 months ago
nothing ever happens
Zhangmuzhiholy · 7 months ago
gg

As of Oct 2, 08:18 AM UTC