PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch?

No56%

Yes45%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:53 PM UTC

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24h volume$67.3

7d volume$142.3

30d volume$2K

Liquidity$1.9K

Spread2%

ResolvesJan 1, 2028next year

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cambria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

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Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria differ in no material way; Polymarket lists an administrative resolution time, while PredictFun does not.

PredictFunOpen →
Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cambria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Created At: 2026-03-02T19:16:52.708949926Z
read Sep 29, 10:51 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Cambria FDV above $40M one day after launch?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cambria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
36 holders · 7 comments · read Sep 25, 03:59 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Cambria FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Polymarket	73% No	—	—	—	Open
Cambria FDV above $70M one day after launch?	Polymarket	85% No	—	—	—	Open
Cambria FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Polymarket	88% No	—	—	—	Open
Cambria FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Polymarket	91% No	—	—	—	Open
Cambria FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Polymarket	70% Yes	$305.5	—	—	Open
Cambria FDV above $30M one day after launch?	Polymarket	55% Yes	$30	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 4 days ago

Holders36

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments7

Best bid 42% · best ask 43%

Top holders

briaa1115670029951774713111001746309468758393553109760720650024179058275575631129867
MaxEnt114380354850738488426954269956343460582238101950213282601488751108588690352772
alanhutton115670029951774713111001746309468758393553109760720650024179058275575631129867
0xf22b92600b8736a7c1552f6de5808eee72647eab114380354850738488426954269956343460582238101950213282601488751108588690352772
LornaPredicts115670029951774713111001746309468758393553109760720650024179058275575631129867

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY60%$456 days ago
SELL35%$1.47 days ago
BUY40%$10.68 days ago
BUY43%$21.58 days ago
BUY39%$11.78 days ago
BUY59%$17.28 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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7 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

BearGrizzzy · 2 months ago
20 yes
mewmew1 · 2 months ago
cumbria 😮‍💨😮‍💨😮‍💨🍌🍌🍌
flaneur22 · 2 months ago
then buy my under 20 mil bids
dofaqq · 7 months ago
It's no way even above 15M after 1 day
maxdawg · 7 months ago
wassup
madril · 7 months ago
hey boys
shaIom · 7 months ago
.

As of Sep 29, 11:21 PM UTC