PolymarketOpen

Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Yes84%

No17%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:02 PM UTC

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24h volume$26.3

7d volume$26.3

30d volume$523.1

Liquidity$1.7K

Spread7%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Polymarket	99% No	—	—	—	Open
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Polymarket	87% No	$304	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 8 days ago

Holders69

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments3

Best bid 74% · best ask 85%

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296661885678050493995767230055862252295507299776848960847486709072781370635143657
Investnow46307281474645458563981850320099177843494152250939134738419734314841265361956
Djibooty61885678050493995767230055862252295507299776848960847486709072781370635143657
big-short46307281474645458563981850320099177843494152250939134738419734314841265361956
cat676746307281474645458563981850320099177843494152250939134738419734314841265361956

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY78%$610 days ago
BUY81%$8.712 days ago
BUY82%$1013 days ago
BUY20%$0.319 days ago
SELL81%$0.220 days ago
SELL81%$0.420 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

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3 comments

From Polymarket's own thread

Comments belong to the venue's event, not to this outcome. Every leg of the same event shares this thread.

pblowesq · 6 months ago
mythos
Tinted-Outfielder · 7 months ago
How did u do it?
JarheadLXXI · 8 months ago
woah! my first time ever getting a market created :D

As of Sep 29, 10:26 PM UTC